Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
